Bank of America is Doomed!!!
Three months ago, in light of the then released news that various parties among which the New York Fed and PIMCO are seeking to putback $47 billion worth of mortgages to Bank of America, we looked at the bank's reserve for reps and warranties and came to the conclusion that it was woefully underreserved (see: Can You Spell U-N-D-E-R-R-E-S-E-R-V-E-D? If Not, Here Is A Visualization Aid). Today, to our complete lack of surprise, we find that the Bank's reserve for such demands has exploded nearly five fold to a number that is probably the highest in history, at $4,140 million compared to a tiny $872 million in Q3, primarily driven by the settlement by Fannie and its sell out General Counsel Tim Maoypoulos. This is also the main reason for the bank's huge "charge" today which caused Earnings to be well below expectations. That said, that particular settlement is just the beginning of the firm's putback woes. Of course, what the bank is doing here is pretending this is a one time charge and hoping investors will give it credit for the Q3 number being the trendline, as opposed to the Q4, when it is precisely the reverse. Furthermore, we predict that soon enough declining reserves in all other categories will soon be reversed much higher as the sad reality of the US consumer, who has already extracted all benefits from not paying a mortgage, will become very evident and bank charge off ratios will be the first to suffer.